Tuesday saw a cautious forecast that would keep heating demand low over the next two weeks be countered by a positive increase in exports and higher global gas prices, which kept U.S. natural gas futures close to an eight-month high. For the third day in a running, front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $3.382 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up 0.6 penny or 0.2% from their previous finish on January 23. Additionally, it kept the front month in theoretically overbought territory and helped it rise for a sixth day in a row for the first time since March.
for the first time since July 2022, with a relative strength index (RSI) above 70 for the fourth straight day. Amid concerns over global supplies, partly attributed to Middle Eastern turmoil, petrol prices in Europe surged by 15% to a six-month high of almost $15 per mmBtu at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands. For the second day in a row, next-day petrol in the U.S. spot market reached a record high of $3.30 per mmBtu at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana on Tuesday. This is the highest price since January 2023.
However, as long as the front-month price is still higher than the next-day price, the spot market will keep pressure on U.S. futures. Data from financial firm LSEG shows that for 158 of the 193 trading days this year, next-day prices have finished below the front-month. Over the course of the next week, there is a 30% possibility that a tropical cyclone may form in the western Gulf of Mexico, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Centre. A storm in the western Gulf of Mexico, according to traders, may either lower prices by destroying an LNG export facility or knocking out power to millions of households, or it might raise prices by damaging oil and gas pipes and wells.
ASSURANCE AND REQUEST The Lower 48 U.S. states’ average petrol output increased to 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, according to LSEG. This is an increase from 102.6 bcfd in September, but it is still less than the monthly record of 103.1 bcfd set in July. However, output was expected to decrease by 2.3 bcfd on a daily basis, reaching a preliminary 102.1 bcfd on Tuesday. Although energy dealers pointed out that preliminary data is frequently updated later in the day, that would be the largest one-day drop in output since early August. LSEG predicted that U.S. petrol consumption, including exports, would increase from 94.7 bcfd this week to 96.2 bcfd the next week due to the arrival of typically cooler weather.
These projections were less optimistic than LSEG’s Monday outlook. October pipeline shipments to Mexico have remained close to 7.2 bcfd thus far, which is the same as the record monthly high reached in September. Despite an increase to 12.9 bcfd in October from 12.6 bcfd in September, the gas flows to the seven major U.S. LNG export plants are still well behind the record high of 14.0 bcfd in April. Energy dealers stated that after Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility in Maryland ends a maintenance outage, total LNG feedgas was projected to reach almost record levels during the next week or two. Cove Point closed in September.
According to LSEG analysts, the plant typically closes for three weeks in the autumn for maintenance. The week was over. The week was over. A year prior a 5-year Actual Oct. 6 average, Sep. 29 Projected Weekly change in U.S. natgas storage (bcf) for October 6: 94 86 125 93 Total amount of natgas in storage in the United States (bcf): 3,539 3,445 3,213 3,366 More above the 5-year average 3.3% 5.1% Futures for the global gas benchmark ($/mmBtu) Day Today Yesterday This Month Last Year Average Average Five Years Ago 2017–2022 = 2022 Hub, Henry 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 3.36 3.38 6.08 6.54 13.41, 38.37, 40.50, and 7.49 Korea Marker (JKM) for Japan 14.16 14.08 34.11 8.95 32.98 14.08 Heating of LSEG (HDD),
Degree Days of Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Two-Week Overall Prediction Day-by-day, Year-by-Year, and 30-year average Standard GFS HDDs in the US 119, 122, 128 114, 131 GFS CDDs for the US 35 37 44 53 43 GFS TDDs in the US: 154, 159, 172, 167, 174 ALG U.S. Weekly GFS Forecasts for Supply and Demand Previous Week This Week This Week Next Week Monthly Average of the Last Five Years for U.S. Supply (bcfd) Lower 48 States’ Dry Production 102.2 103.5 103.5 99.4 93.1 Imports into the United States from Canada 7.8 6.0 6.7 6.8 6.3 American LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total Supply in the U.S. Demand in the US: 108.9 110.3 109.8 105.4 101.0 (bcfd) Canada imports from the US 1.51.5.4.1.4.2.2.2 U.S.
Household 8.2 6.7 7.5 U.S. Power Plant 4.2 6.7 U.S. Industrial 35.4 30.9 29.5 31.6 30.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 21.7 22.3 22.6 22.1 22.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel: 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 Total Consumption in the US 73.2, 74.5, 73.6, and 73.9 Demand in the US overall 94.6 94.7 96.2 92.4 88.8 The Dalles Dam’s Northwest River Forecast Centre (NWRFC) in the United States Previous Day’s Current Day % 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Real Real Actual 95 94 83 107 81 Apr-Sep Oct-Sep 91 91 76 103 81 U.S. Jan-Jul 91 91 77 102 79?
weekly percentage of power generation by fuel – EIA The week was over. The week was over, the week was over, the week ended Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Oct 13 Oct 6 Vent 8 8 5 9 11 8 Sun 5- 4-4-4-4-4 hydra 5 (5) 5 (5) extra 2 2 2 2 Mineral oil 0-0-0-0-0 Gas 40, 42, 44, 43 46 Natural 16 16 17 17 18 Coal 22 19 20 20 19 Nuclear SNL Natural Gas USA Prices for the Next Day ($/mmBtu) Hub Yesterday Today Tomorrow Hub, Henry 3.13 3.30 The Z6 Transco New York 1.30 0.95 Citygate PG&E 551.9 5.51 Old Dominion South’s Eastern Gas 1.23 1· Illinois Gate City 2.50 2.60 Citygate Algonquin 1.46 1.35 Citygate SoCal 6.75 6.60 Hub Waha 2.49